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Posted by YSA on October 24, 2001 at 13:53:31:

In Reply to: Het x het breeding. 0, 1, 2, 3 or 4 albinos from 4 eggs?? posted by Bas on October 24, 2001 at 10:35:41:

Before everyone owning hets goes running out of the door, screaming, hands flailing in the air, please consider this...

The likelihood of producing 1 albino given above is the likelihood of producing ONLY 1 albino from the litter. The likelihood of producing AT LEAST 1 albino from 4 eggs would be 100%. In other words, statistically AT LEAST 1 of the 4 eggs SHOULD produce an albino; you may get more than 1, but statistically you should get AT LEAST 1.

Statistics can be a confusing subject. I'm reminded of an example of how statistics can be very misleading if not appropriately interpreted. I forget the exact details, but the story goes something like this: The General Accounting Office (GAO) produced a report which stated that tax revenues collected for the year were (again, I don't recall the exact figures) $10 billion; these revenues came from a tax rate of 33%. A Senator asked the GAO to estimate how much tax revenues the government could expect if the tax rate were increased to 100% (ie: every penny of your income went to taxes). The GAO responded that $30 billion in taxes could be expected as a consequence of raising the tax rate to 100%. Statistically, this was perfectly true. Unfortunately, statistics overlooked the fact that no one in their right mind would bother working if ALL of their income were taken away in taxes.

Moral of the story: Statistics can be 100% correct and also 100% inaccurate (I'm sure this will get our statisticians going...).

Have fun, enjoy your hets.
YSA

Follow Ups:

Right on MAN!!!! np Brian Ferriera 10/24/01 (0)
chance of at least 1 albino from 4 eggs= 1-(0,75^4)=0,6836= 68,36% np. Bas 10/24/01 (18)
- No...100%... YSA 10/24/01 (17)
  - I'll try to explain.... Bas 10/24/01 (16)
    - Hmmm... YSA 10/24/01 (15)
      - Re: Hmmm... Paul Hollander 10/25/01 (6)
        
        No... YSA 10/25/01 (5)
        
        Re: No... Bob Garby 10/26/01 (0)
        
        Re: No... Paul Hollander 10/26/01 (3)
        
        No, again... YSA 10/26/01 (2)
        
        Congratulations! I knew you'd come around eventually. n/p Paul Hollander 10/26/01 (1)
        
        This is so cool!! .... Bas 10/26/01 (0)
      - Re: Hmmm... Bob Garby 10/25/01 (5)
        
        Last comment and then I'm done... YSA 10/25/01 (4)
        
        Re: Last comment and then I'm done... Bob Garby 10/26/01 (3)
        
        Re: Last comment and then I'm done... YSA 10/26/01 (2)
        
        Whoops... YSA 10/26/01 (1)
        
        Agreed. N/P Bob Garby 10/26/01 (0)
      - one last try... and thanks for this cool conversation! :-) Cheers. Bas 10/25/01 (1)
        
        Okey Dokey... YSA 10/25/01 (0)

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: : Before everyone owning hets goes running out of the door, screaming, hands flailing in the air, please consider this... : The likelihood of producing 1 albino given above is the likelihood of producing ONLY 1 albino from the litter. The likelihood of producing AT LEAST 1 albino from 4 eggs would be 100%. In other words, statistically AT LEAST 1 of the 4 eggs SHOULD produce an albino; you may get more than 1, but statistically you should get AT LEAST 1. : Statistics can be a confusing subject. I'm reminded of an example of how statistics can be very misleading if not appropriately interpreted. I forget the exact details, but the story goes something like this: The General Accounting Office (GAO) produced a report which stated that tax revenues collected for the year were (again, I don't recall the exact figures) $10 billion; these revenues came from a tax rate of 33%. A Senator asked the GAO to estimate how much tax revenues the government could expect if the tax rate were increased to 100% (ie: every penny of your income went to taxes). The GAO responded that $30 billion in taxes could be expected as a consequence of raising the tax rate to 100%. Statistically, this was perfectly true. Unfortunately, statistics overlooked the fact that no one in their right mind would bother working if ALL of their income were taken away in taxes. : Moral of the story: Statistics can be 100% correct and also 100% inaccurate (I'm sure this will get our statisticians going...). : Have fun, enjoy your hets. : YSA

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