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Posted by YSA on October 25, 2001 at 21:19:10:

In Reply to: Re: Hmmm... posted by Paul Hollander on October 25, 2001 at 19:20:00:

If you can point me to exactly where I stated that I expected "at least one albino in EVERY four egg clutch" then I will certainly admit that I made a statement in error. I believe that I have somewhat consistently referred to the "likelihood" of producing 1 albino from a 4 egg clutch. By "likelihood", I was referring to what I would expect ON AVERAGE. The only reason I started using "%" terminology was in response to and discussion about the theoretical probability formula presented by Bas and Bob.

If there is any "fallacy" here at all, it is your unwarranted assumption that I expect 1 albino in EVERY 4 egg clutch. Since you state that you would expect around 2500 albinos from 10000 eggs, and since I believe that 10000 eggs would provide a statistically significant sample size, I also would expect around 2500 albinos from 10000 eggs. I guess this means that you agree with me.

Once again, I do not believe that I EVER stated that I would expect to ALWAYS get 1 albino from EVERY 4 egg clutch.

I would like to comment on your coin toss experiment and the somewhat snide comment that followed. You sought to discredit what you believed my argument to be using logic that is in itself flawed. You used a series of 5 coin tosses to establish what does or does not happen in the "real world"? I just tossed a coin...it came up heads. Using your logic, the real world is telling me that every time I toss a coin I can be certain of getting a head? Using your logic, the real world is telling me that on average I will get 1 head every time I toss a coin? Your logic is seriously flawed in that your sample size was insufficient to establish an anticipated probability or anticipated average of a head or a tail occurring. How can you possibly seek to discredit anything by using such logic which I am certain you surely must know is flawed?

Would you care to comment on the statement made by Bas and Bob that the probability of producing AT LEAST 1 albino from 4 eggs is 68.36%? My feeling is that the average herper would look at that and say "I always thought that ON AVERAGE I should get 1 albino from every 4 eggs; according to Bas and Bob I only have a little over half a chance of getting 1 albino".

Follow Ups:

Re: No... Bob Garby 10/26/01 (0)
Re: No... Paul Hollander 10/26/01 (3)
- No, again... YSA 10/26/01 (2)
  - Congratulations! I knew you'd come around eventually. n/p Paul Hollander 10/26/01 (1)
    - This is so cool!! .... Bas 10/26/01 (0)

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: : If you can point me to exactly where I stated that I expected "at least one albino in EVERY four egg clutch" then I will certainly admit that I made a statement in error. I believe that I have somewhat consistently referred to the "likelihood" of producing 1 albino from a 4 egg clutch. By "likelihood", I was referring to what I would expect ON AVERAGE. The only reason I started using "%" terminology was in response to and discussion about the theoretical probability formula presented by Bas and Bob. : If there is any "fallacy" here at all, it is your unwarranted assumption that I expect 1 albino in EVERY 4 egg clutch. Since you state that you would expect around 2500 albinos from 10000 eggs, and since I believe that 10000 eggs would provide a statistically significant sample size, I also would expect around 2500 albinos from 10000 eggs. I guess this means that you agree with me. : Once again, I do not believe that I EVER stated that I would expect to ALWAYS get 1 albino from EVERY 4 egg clutch. : I would like to comment on your coin toss experiment and the somewhat snide comment that followed. You sought to discredit what you believed my argument to be using logic that is in itself flawed. You used a series of 5 coin tosses to establish what does or does not happen in the "real world"? I just tossed a coin...it came up heads. Using your logic, the real world is telling me that every time I toss a coin I can be certain of getting a head? Using your logic, the real world is telling me that on average I will get 1 head every time I toss a coin? Your logic is seriously flawed in that your sample size was insufficient to establish an anticipated probability or anticipated average of a head or a tail occurring. How can you possibly seek to discredit anything by using such logic which I am certain you surely must know is flawed? : Would you care to comment on the statement made by Bas and Bob that the probability of producing AT LEAST 1 albino from 4 eggs is 68.36%? My feeling is that the average herper would look at that and say "I always thought that ON AVERAGE I should get 1 albino from every 4 eggs; according to Bas and Bob I only have a little over half a chance of getting 1 albino".

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