Re: No...

Posted by Bob Garby on October 26, 2001 at 16:25:50:

In Reply to: No... posted by YSA on October 25, 2001 at 21:19:10:

"Would you care to comment on the statement made by Bas and Bob that the probability of producing AT LEAST 1 albino from 4
eggs is 68.36%?"

This is an absolutely, 100% true statement, provided the parents are indeed definite het for albino.

"My feeling is that the average herper would look at that and say "I always thought that ON AVERAGE I should
get 1 albino from every 4 eggs; according to Bas and Bob I only have a little over half a chance of getting 1 albino"."

The expected number of albinos from a 4 egg clutch is 1. If you look at the five possibilities and their probabilities, that is the single most likely outcome, at 42.2% of the time. The last part of your comment is incorrect: it should read, AT LEAST one albino. This is a subtle but very important detail, as there is a respectable 26.2% chance of producing two or more albinos.

The science of probability is sound. The Las Vegas casinos would not be in business if it weren't. Sometimes the numbers you get are surprising, but that's what makes it interesting. It also comes in handy when you're on the blackjack table!

Regards,
Bob Garby

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: "Would you care to comment on the statement made by Bas and Bob that the probability of producing AT LEAST 1 albino from 4 : eggs is 68.36%?" : This is an absolutely, 100% true statement, provided the parents are indeed definite het for albino. : "My feeling is that the average herper would look at that and say "I always thought that ON AVERAGE I should : get 1 albino from every 4 eggs; according to Bas and Bob I only have a little over half a chance of getting 1 albino"." : The expected number of albinos from a 4 egg clutch is 1. If you look at the five possibilities and their probabilities, that is the single most likely outcome, at 42.2% of the time. The last part of your comment is incorrect: it should read, AT LEAST one albino. This is a subtle but very important detail, as there is a respectable 26.2% chance of producing two or more albinos. : The science of probability is sound. The Las Vegas casinos would not be in business if it weren't. Sometimes the numbers you get are surprising, but that's what makes it interesting. It also comes in handy when you're on the blackjack table! : Regards, : Bob Garby

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