I'll try to explain....

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Posted by Bas on October 24, 2001 at 18:41:44:

In Reply to: No...100%... posted by YSA on October 24, 2001 at 17:32:33:

Hi
I'll try to explain. My english isn't very good because i'm a dutch guy, but i hope you understand.
The chance that an albino hatches from 1 egg is 1/4, right? so the chance that a normal looking snake hatches is 3/4.
It's the same thing like 3 red balls and one yellow ball in a box. From each box you must pick one ball. chance of 1/4 you pick the yellow ball and chance of 3/4 you pick a red ball.
Now you have 4 boxes, al with 3 red balls and one yellow. Why can't you pick red balls only?
There is a chance you pick 4 red balls and that chance is: 3/4 x 3/4 x 3/4 x 3/4 = 0.3164 (31.64%).
The chance you pick at least one yellow ball is the same as the chance you pick NOT only red balls. the chance you pick only red balls is 0.3164 so the chance you pick at least one yellow ball is: 1 - 0.3164 = 0.6836 (68.36%).
Now back to the ballpython story...
The chance that a normal looking bp comes out 1 egg is 3/4.
The chance that 4 normal bp's hatch from 4 eggs is: 3/4 x 3/4 x 3/4 x 3/4 = 0.3164
So the chance you have at least one albino (= the chance you have NOT only normals) = 1 - 0.3164 = 0.6836 (68.36%)

I hope you understand this.
This is quite easy stuff compared with calculations for at least 2 or more, because then, a certain combination is there more than one time. (egg#1 could be albino, egg#2 could be albino, etc)

Cheers,
Bas

:
: Breeding a het albino to a het albino produces 4 'different' genetic possibilities:
: - Normal
: - Het albino from father's albino allele
: - Het albino from mother's albino allele
: - Albino

: So...any single egg can have 4 'different' genetic possibilities; the (statistical) likelihood of an albino being 1 in 4. What does 1 in 4 mean? It means that (statistically) out of 4 eggs we should produce 1 albino.

: Since we should produce 1 albino out of 4 eggs, and since we have 4 eggs, we should therefore produce 1 albino (statistically, that is). This means that 4 eggs gives us a (statistical) likelihood of 100% of producing at least 1 albino.

: Apparently you're saying that we have a 68.36% chance of producing an albino from 4 eggs. This means that we need more than 4 eggs to have a 100% chance of producing an albino, which in turn implies that there are more than 4 'different' genetic possibilities from a het albino to het albino breeding.

: There is no obvious flaw that I can see in the logic I have outlined above and in my previous posting. If you can tell me where I have made a mistake, I would appreciate it.

: By the way, I thought I'd point out that both you and I are assuming that the genetic traits inherit in a predictable manner with equal likelihood of being passed to the offspring. Where would your formula (or my logic) be if the albino allele was inherited 93 times more frequently than not?

: So...please let me know where - if anywhere - my logic is in error.

: Thank you.

Follow Ups:

Hmmm... YSA 10/24/01 (15)
- Re: Hmmm... Paul Hollander 10/25/01 (6)
  - No... YSA 10/25/01 (5)
    - Re: No... Bob Garby 10/26/01 (0)
    - Re: No... Paul Hollander 10/26/01 (3)
      - No, again... YSA 10/26/01 (2)
        
        Congratulations! I knew you'd come around eventually. n/p Paul Hollander 10/26/01 (1)
        
        This is so cool!! .... Bas 10/26/01 (0)
- Re: Hmmm... Bob Garby 10/25/01 (5)
  - Last comment and then I'm done... YSA 10/25/01 (4)
    - Re: Last comment and then I'm done... Bob Garby 10/26/01 (3)
      - Re: Last comment and then I'm done... YSA 10/26/01 (2)
        
        Whoops... YSA 10/26/01 (1)
        
        Agreed. N/P Bob Garby 10/26/01 (0)
- one last try... and thanks for this cool conversation! :-) Cheers. Bas 10/25/01 (1)
  - Okey Dokey... YSA 10/25/01 (0)

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: Hi : I'll try to explain. My english isn't very good because i'm a dutch guy, but i hope you understand. : The chance that an albino hatches from 1 egg is 1/4, right? so the chance that a normal looking snake hatches is 3/4. : It's the same thing like 3 red balls and one yellow ball in a box. From each box you must pick one ball. chance of 1/4 you pick the yellow ball and chance of 3/4 you pick a red ball. : Now you have 4 boxes, al with 3 red balls and one yellow. Why can't you pick red balls only? : There is a chance you pick 4 red balls and that chance is: 3/4 x 3/4 x 3/4 x 3/4 = 0.3164 (31.64%). : The chance you pick at least one yellow ball is the same as the chance you pick NOT only red balls. the chance you pick only red balls is 0.3164 so the chance you pick at least one yellow ball is: 1 - 0.3164 = 0.6836 (68.36%). : Now back to the ballpython story... : The chance that a normal looking bp comes out 1 egg is 3/4. : The chance that 4 normal bp's hatch from 4 eggs is: 3/4 x 3/4 x 3/4 x 3/4 = 0.3164 : So the chance you have at least one albino (= the chance you have NOT only normals) = 1 - 0.3164 = 0.6836 (68.36%) : I hope you understand this. : This is quite easy stuff compared with calculations for at least 2 or more, because then, a certain combination is there more than one time. (egg#1 could be albino, egg#2 could be albino, etc) : Cheers, : Bas : : : : Breeding a het albino to a het albino produces 4 'different' genetic possibilities: : : - Normal : : - Het albino from father's albino allele : : - Het albino from mother's albino allele : : - Albino : : So...any single egg can have 4 'different' genetic possibilities; the (statistical) likelihood of an albino being 1 in 4. What does 1 in 4 mean? It means that (statistically) out of 4 eggs we should produce 1 albino. : : Since we should produce 1 albino out of 4 eggs, and since we have 4 eggs, we should therefore produce 1 albino (statistically, that is). This means that 4 eggs gives us a (statistical) likelihood of 100% of producing at least 1 albino. : : Apparently you're saying that we have a 68.36% chance of producing an albino from 4 eggs. This means that we need more than 4 eggs to have a 100% chance of producing an albino, which in turn implies that there are more than 4 'different' genetic possibilities from a het albino to het albino breeding. : : There is no obvious flaw that I can see in the logic I have outlined above and in my previous posting. If you can tell me where I have made a mistake, I would appreciate it. : : By the way, I thought I'd point out that both you and I are assuming that the genetic traits inherit in a predictable manner with equal likelihood of being passed to the offspring. Where would your formula (or my logic) be if the albino allele was inherited 93 times more frequently than not? : : So...please let me know where - if anywhere - my logic is in error. : : Thank you.

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