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Posted by YSA on October 25, 2001 at 20:05:42:
In Reply to: Re: Hmmm... posted by Bob Garby on October 25, 2001 at 06:47:09:
Did I say that Bas was not correct in his calculations? I don't believe so.
You guys are both talking probability; I am talking averages. We are dealing with apples and oranges!
Regarding the 5 egg clutch...do not confuse your probability argument (where the maximum allowable probability is defined to be 1.00) with my average argument. A 5 egg clutch will (on average) produce 1 1/4 albinos. If my animals produced four 5 egg clutches, I would expect (on average) to produce 5 albinos.
Your formula predicts that the probability of me tossing a coin and getting AT LEAST 1 tail approaches 100% (but never actually gets there) the closer I get to tossing the coin an infinite numer of times. ie: Your formula does not predict that I can ever toss a coin and be certain of getting a tail...no matter how many times I toss it. In theory this is true...I could toss a coin until infinity and never get a tail; in practice, however, this is not true.
My logic argues that the closer I get to tossing a coin an infinite number of times, the closer my average will get to 1 out of every 2 tosses being a tail.
Based on the values that you and Bas substitute into your formula, you are stating that my odds of producing a normal (phenotype) from a het to het breeding is 3/4; my odds of producing an albino is 1/4. Would you please explain to me what "1/4" means if it doesn't mean that 1 out of every 4 will (on average) be albino?
