No...100%...

Posted by YSA on October 24, 2001 at 17:32:33:

In Reply to: chance of at least 1 albino from 4 eggs= 1-(0,75^4)=0,6836= 68,36% np. posted by Bas on October 24, 2001 at 15:12:49:

Breeding a het albino to a het albino produces 4 'different' genetic possibilities:
- Normal
- Het albino from father's albino allele
- Het albino from mother's albino allele
- Albino

So...any single egg can have 4 'different' genetic possibilities; the (statistical) likelihood of an albino being 1 in 4. What does 1 in 4 mean? It means that (statistically) out of 4 eggs we should produce 1 albino.

Since we should produce 1 albino out of 4 eggs, and since we have 4 eggs, we should therefore produce 1 albino (statistically, that is). This means that 4 eggs gives us a (statistical) likelihood of 100% of producing at least 1 albino.

Apparently you're saying that we have a 68.36% chance of producing an albino from 4 eggs. This means that we need more than 4 eggs to have a 100% chance of producing an albino, which in turn implies that there are more than 4 'different' genetic possibilities from a het albino to het albino breeding.

There is no obvious flaw that I can see in the logic I have outlined above and in my previous posting. If you can tell me where I have made a mistake, I would appreciate it.

By the way, I thought I'd point out that both you and I are assuming that the genetic traits inherit in a predictable manner with equal likelihood of being passed to the offspring. Where would your formula (or my logic) be if the albino allele was inherited 93 times more frequently than not?

So...please let me know where - if anywhere - my logic is in error.

Thank you.

Follow Ups:

• I'll try to explain.... Bas 10/24/01 (16)
  • Hmmm... YSA 10/24/01 (15)
    • Re: Hmmm... Paul Hollander 10/25/01 (6)
      • No... YSA 10/25/01 (5)
        • Re: No... Bob Garby 10/26/01 (0)
        • Re: No... Paul Hollander 10/26/01 (3)
          • No, again... YSA 10/26/01 (2)
            • Congratulations! I knew you'd come around eventually. n/p Paul Hollander 10/26/01 (1)
              • This is so cool!! .... Bas 10/26/01 (0)
    • Re: Hmmm... Bob Garby 10/25/01 (5)
      • Last comment and then I'm done... YSA 10/25/01 (4)
        • Re: Last comment and then I'm done... Bob Garby 10/26/01 (3)
          • Re: Last comment and then I'm done... YSA 10/26/01 (2)
            • Whoops... YSA 10/26/01 (1)
              • Agreed. N/P Bob Garby 10/26/01 (0)
    • one last try... and thanks for this cool conversation! :-) Cheers. Bas 10/25/01 (1)
      • Okey Dokey... YSA 10/25/01 (0)

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Comments:
: : Breeding a het albino to a het albino produces 4 'different' genetic possibilities: : - Normal : - Het albino from father's albino allele : - Het albino from mother's albino allele : - Albino : So...any single egg can have 4 'different' genetic possibilities; the (statistical) likelihood of an albino being 1 in 4. What does 1 in 4 mean? It means that (statistically) out of 4 eggs we should produce 1 albino. : Since we should produce 1 albino out of 4 eggs, and since we have 4 eggs, we should therefore produce 1 albino (statistically, that is). This means that 4 eggs gives us a (statistical) likelihood of 100% of producing at least 1 albino. : Apparently you're saying that we have a 68.36% chance of producing an albino from 4 eggs. This means that we need more than 4 eggs to have a 100% chance of producing an albino, which in turn implies that there are more than 4 'different' genetic possibilities from a het albino to het albino breeding. : There is no obvious flaw that I can see in the logic I have outlined above and in my previous posting. If you can tell me where I have made a mistake, I would appreciate it. : By the way, I thought I'd point out that both you and I are assuming that the genetic traits inherit in a predictable manner with equal likelihood of being passed to the offspring. Where would your formula (or my logic) be if the albino allele was inherited 93 times more frequently than not? : So...please let me know where - if anywhere - my logic is in error. : Thank you.

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