Right on MAN!!!! np

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Posted by Brian Ferriera on October 24, 2001 at 17:50:30:

In Reply to: Before people with hets start panicking... posted by YSA on October 24, 2001 at 13:53:31:

:
: Before everyone owning hets goes running out of the door, screaming, hands flailing in the air, please consider this...

: The likelihood of producing 1 albino given above is the likelihood of producing ONLY 1 albino from the litter. The likelihood of producing AT LEAST 1 albino from 4 eggs would be 100%. In other words, statistically AT LEAST 1 of the 4 eggs SHOULD produce an albino; you may get more than 1, but statistically you should get AT LEAST 1.

: Statistics can be a confusing subject. I'm reminded of an example of how statistics can be very misleading if not appropriately interpreted. I forget the exact details, but the story goes something like this: The General Accounting Office (GAO) produced a report which stated that tax revenues collected for the year were (again, I don't recall the exact figures) $10 billion; these revenues came from a tax rate of 33%. A Senator asked the GAO to estimate how much tax revenues the government could expect if the tax rate were increased to 100% (ie: every penny of your income went to taxes). The GAO responded that $30 billion in taxes could be expected as a consequence of raising the tax rate to 100%. Statistically, this was perfectly true. Unfortunately, statistics overlooked the fact that no one in their right mind would bother working if ALL of their income were taken away in taxes.

: Moral of the story: Statistics can be 100% correct and also 100% inaccurate (I'm sure this will get our statisticians going...).

: Have fun, enjoy your hets.
: YSA

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: : : : Before everyone owning hets goes running out of the door, screaming, hands flailing in the air, please consider this... : : The likelihood of producing 1 albino given above is the likelihood of producing ONLY 1 albino from the litter. The likelihood of producing AT LEAST 1 albino from 4 eggs would be 100%. In other words, statistically AT LEAST 1 of the 4 eggs SHOULD produce an albino; you may get more than 1, but statistically you should get AT LEAST 1. : : Statistics can be a confusing subject. I'm reminded of an example of how statistics can be very misleading if not appropriately interpreted. I forget the exact details, but the story goes something like this: The General Accounting Office (GAO) produced a report which stated that tax revenues collected for the year were (again, I don't recall the exact figures) $10 billion; these revenues came from a tax rate of 33%. A Senator asked the GAO to estimate how much tax revenues the government could expect if the tax rate were increased to 100% (ie: every penny of your income went to taxes). The GAO responded that $30 billion in taxes could be expected as a consequence of raising the tax rate to 100%. Statistically, this was perfectly true. Unfortunately, statistics overlooked the fact that no one in their right mind would bother working if ALL of their income were taken away in taxes. : : Moral of the story: Statistics can be 100% correct and also 100% inaccurate (I'm sure this will get our statisticians going...). : : Have fun, enjoy your hets. : : YSA

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Right on MAN!!!! np

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